Julia Le Coq v Elspeth Young (Tue 02 Apr 2019)
Match won by Julia Le Coq. Result: 15-13,12-14,4-11,11-8,11-8.
Starting level for
Julia Le Coq:
3,294, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for
Elspeth Young:
3,266, level confidence: 64%.
Julia Le Coq to win as she is currently playing
1% better than Elspeth Young.
Julia Le Coq won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julia Le Coq played
7% better than Elspeth Young in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julia Le Coq actually played at a level of
3,393 and Elspeth Young at a level of
3,170. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq changes to +3% and Elspeth Young changes to -2.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq becomes +2% and for Elspeth Young becomes -1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Racquet Club Pro Series' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julia Le Coq: 77%, Elspeth Young: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julia Le Coq: 74%, Elspeth Young: 78%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq:
3,359, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Elspeth Young:
3,208, level confidence: 78%.