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Mohamed Elsherbini v Waqar Mehboob (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-7,13-11,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,426, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Waqar Mehboob: 14,786, level confidence: 16%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 140% better than Waqar Mehboob.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 38% better than Waqar Mehboob in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Elsherbini was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 24,179 and 35,426 without affecting his level.

As Mohamed Elsherbini has played below his allowed range at 22,212, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 29,267 (based on typical behaviour), Waqar Mehboob played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -1.1% and Waqar Mehboob changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -0.4% and for Waqar Mehboob becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cas International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 90%, Waqar Mehboob: 40%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 68%, Waqar Mehboob: 30%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,280, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Waqar Mehboob: 15,292, level confidence: 30%.