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Michael Cowhie v Oliver Janssen (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Michael Cowhie. Result: 11-1,9-11,11-8,8-11,11-4.

Starting level for Michael Cowhie: 5,747, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Janssen: 3,208, level confidence: 59%.
Michael Cowhie to win as he is currently playing 79% better than Oliver Janssen.

Michael Cowhie won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Cowhie played 18% better than Oliver Janssen in this match.

As Michael Cowhie has played below his allowed range at 4,247, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Michael Cowhie would normally have been playing at level 5,228 (based on typical behaviour), Oliver Janssen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.8% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Cowhie changes to -7.2% and Oliver Janssen changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Cowhie becomes -2.9% and for Oliver Janssen becomes +5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Slovenian Masters Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Cowhie: 84%, Oliver Janssen: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Cowhie: 68%, Oliver Janssen: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Cowhie: 5,657, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Oliver Janssen: 3,366, level confidence: 62%.