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Oliver Janssen v Hassan Meguid (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Oliver Janssen. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Oliver Janssen: 2,985, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hassan Meguid: 4,806, level confidence: 44%.
Hassan Meguid to win as he is currently playing 61% better than Oliver Janssen.

Oliver Janssen won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Oliver Janssen played 35% better than Hassan Meguid in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Oliver Janssen actually played at a level of 4,393 and Hassan Meguid at a level of 3,266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Oliver Janssen changes to +21% and Hassan Meguid changes to -36%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Oliver Janssen becomes +7.7% and for Hassan Meguid becomes -10.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Slovenian Masters Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Hassan Meguid is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Oliver Janssen: 86%, Hassan Meguid: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Oliver Janssen: 59%, Hassan Meguid: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Janssen: 3,210, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Hassan Meguid: 4,570, level confidence: 45%.