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Adrian Waller v Oliver Pett (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-3,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 43,656, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Oliver Pett: 22,014, level confidence: 61%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Oliver Pett.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 120% better than Oliver Pett in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 45,981 and Oliver Pett at a level of 20,901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +3.8% and Oliver Pett changes to -3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +1.3% and for Oliver Pett becomes -1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 70%, Oliver Pett: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 66%, Oliver Pett: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 43,768, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Oliver Pett: 22,058, level confidence: 74%.