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Adrain Waller v Mike Harris (Sat 06 Apr 2019)

Match won by Adrain Waller. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Adrain Waller: 44,289, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Mike Harris: 19,630, level confidence: 63%.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 126% better than Mike Harris.

Adrain Waller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrain Waller played 42% better than Mike Harris in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Adrain Waller was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,505 and 44,289 without affecting his level.

As Adrain Waller has played below his allowed range at 29,663, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Adrain Waller would normally have been playing at level 37,354 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Harris played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrain Waller changes to -4.1% and Mike Harris changes to +6.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrain Waller becomes -1.3% and for Mike Harris becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2018/19' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrain Waller: 62%, Mike Harris: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrain Waller: 49%, Mike Harris: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrain Waller: 43,702, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Mike Harris: 20,015, level confidence: 63%.