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Nick Rossiter v Michael McLaughlin (Mon 01 Apr 2019)

Match won by Nick Rossiter. Result: 9-11,4-11,12-10,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Nick Rossiter: 7,589, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,663, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Nick Rossiter.

Nick Rossiter won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Rossiter played 9% better than Michael McLaughlin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Rossiter actually played at a level of 8,925 and Michael McLaughlin at a level of 8,217. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Rossiter changes to +15% and Michael McLaughlin changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Rossiter becomes +4.7% and for Michael McLaughlin becomes -4.3%.

Given Nick Rossiter's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.9% has been applied to his level change.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Nick Rossiter is +3.2% and for Michael McLaughlin is -2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Rossiter: 82%, Michael McLaughlin: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Rossiter: 69%, Michael McLaughlin: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Rossiter: 7,829, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,402, level confidence: 71%.