Todd Harrity v Christopher Gordon (Fri 29 Mar 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-5.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
34,062, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Christopher Gordon:
21,774, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
56% better than Christopher Gordon.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
62% better than Christopher Gordon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Todd Harrity actually played at a level of
34,652 and Christopher Gordon at a level of
21,403. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 1.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to +1.4% and Christopher Gordon changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes +0.5% and for Christopher Gordon becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior US Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 78%, Christopher Gordon: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 77%, Christopher Gordon: 87%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
34,137, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Christopher Gordon:
21,822, level confidence: 87%.