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Tarek Momen v Saurav Ghosal (Fri 29 Mar 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-6,14-12.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 62,066, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,226, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Saurav Ghosal.

Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 26% better than Saurav Ghosal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 62,717 and Saurav Ghosal at a level of 49,705. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +0.9% and Saurav Ghosal changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +0.3% and for Saurav Ghosal becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 81%, Saurav Ghosal: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 81%, Saurav Ghosal: 91%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 62,131, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,279, level confidence: 91%.