Todd Harrity v Harrison Gill (Thu 28 Mar 2019)
Match won by Todd Harrity. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-3.
Starting level for
Todd Harrity:
34,227, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Harrison Gill:
10,427, level confidence: 31%.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing
228% better than Harrison Gill.
Todd Harrity won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Todd Harrity played
120% better than Harrison Gill in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Todd Harrity was taking it easy by anything up to 27%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,021 and 34,227 without affecting his level.
In this case, Todd Harrity played at level 23,869 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Todd Harrity would normally have been playing at level 24,836 (based on typical behaviour), Harrison Gill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Todd Harrity changes to 0% and Harrison Gill changes to +2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Todd Harrity becomes 0% and for Harrison Gill becomes +1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior US Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Todd Harrity: 75%, Harrison Gill: 56%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Todd Harrity: 61%, Harrison Gill: 46%.
Final level for Todd Harrity:
34,227, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Harrison Gill:
10,541, level confidence: 46%.