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Mohamed Abouelghar v Nicolas Mueller (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-9.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 50,705, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Nicolas Mueller: 41,873, level confidence: 69%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Nicolas Mueller.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 40% better than Nicolas Mueller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 54,440 and Nicolas Mueller at a level of 39,000. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +6.7% and Nicolas Mueller changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +1.8% and for Nicolas Mueller becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 81%, Nicolas Mueller: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 75%, Nicolas Mueller: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,513, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Nicolas Mueller: 41,379, level confidence: 77%.