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Saurav Ghosal v Declan James (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-7,12-10,7-11,11-5.

Starting level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,189, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 39,736, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing 26% better than Declan James.

Saurav Ghosal won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played 25% better than Declan James in this match.

In this case, Saurav Ghosal played at level 49,571 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Declan James is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 86%, Declan James: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 86%, Declan James: 91%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Saurav Ghosal: 50,226, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Declan James: 39,939, level confidence: 91%.