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Simon Rösner v Daryl Selby (Thu 28 Mar 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 11-7,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Simon Rösner: 53,255, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 39,087, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Simon Rösner to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Daryl Selby.

Simon Rösner won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 56% better than Daryl Selby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 57,064 and Daryl Selby at a level of 36,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.1% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +6.1% and Daryl Selby changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +1.6% and for Daryl Selby becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 79%, Daryl Selby: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 74%, Daryl Selby: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Rösner: 54,004, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,780, level confidence: 84%.