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Joel Makin v Gregoire Marche (Wed 27 Mar 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-7.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 50,890, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 44,754, level confidence: 65%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Gregoire Marche.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 39% better than Gregoire Marche in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 56,218 and Gregoire Marche at a level of 40,513. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +8.5% and Gregoire Marche changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +2.1% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 86%, Gregoire Marche: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 78%, Gregoire Marche: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 51,870, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche: 43,962, level confidence: 73%.