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Zahed Mohamed v George Parker (Wed 27 Mar 2019)

Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 42,331, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Parker: 39,012, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 9% better than George Parker.

Zahed Mohamed won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played 65% better than George Parker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of 52,200 and George Parker at a level of 31,636. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 23% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +22% and George Parker changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +4.5% and for George Parker becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Grasshopper Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 86%, George Parker: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 69%, George Parker: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 44,082, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,802, level confidence: 74%.