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Sarah Cardwell v Julia Le Coq (Mon 25 Mar 2019)

Match won by Sarah Cardwell. Result: 11-6,9-11,7-11,11-9,13-11.

Starting level for Sarah Cardwell: 5,192, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 3,116, level confidence: 56%.
Sarah Cardwell to win as she is currently playing 67% better than Julia Le Coq.

Sarah Cardwell won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah Cardwell played 9% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.

As Sarah Cardwell has played below her allowed range at 3,900, her level reduction is 15% before damping. On the assumption that Sarah Cardwell would normally have been playing at level 4,820 (based on typical behaviour), Julia Le Coq played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah Cardwell changes to -11% and Julia Le Coq changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah Cardwell becomes -4.1% and for Julia Le Coq becomes +5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Granite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah Cardwell: 75%, Julia Le Coq: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah Cardwell: 61%, Julia Le Coq: 61%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sarah Cardwell: 5,089, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq: 3,293, level confidence: 61%.