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Julia Le Coq v Marina De Juan Gallach (Sun 24 Mar 2019)

Match won by Julia Le Coq. Result: 11-3,11-8,8-11,11-3.

Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 2,908, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Marina De Juan Gallach: 3,681, level confidence: 57%.
Marina De Juan Gallach to win as she is currently playing 27% better than Julia Le Coq.

Julia Le Coq won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julia Le Coq played 38% better than Marina De Juan Gallach in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Julia Le Coq actually played at a level of 3,842 and Marina De Juan Gallach at a level of 2,786. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq changes to +28% and Marina De Juan Gallach changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julia Le Coq becomes +9.9% and for Marina De Juan Gallach becomes -9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Granite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Julia Le Coq is limited to +7.1% and Marina De Juan Gallach is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julia Le Coq: 75%, Marina De Juan Gallach: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julia Le Coq: 57%, Marina De Juan Gallach: 57%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julia Le Coq: 3,116, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Marina De Juan Gallach: 3,525, level confidence: 57%.