Andy Lowe v Michael McLaughlin (Mon 25 Mar 2019)
Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 11-13,7-11,9-11.
Starting level for
Andy Lowe:
6,261, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Michael McLaughlin:
9,498, level confidence: 53%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing
52% better than Andy Lowe.
Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played
38% better than Andy Lowe in this match.
In this case, Michael McLaughlin played at level 8,827 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Michael McLaughlin would normally have been playing at level 9,018 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Lowe played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to 0% and Andy Lowe changes to +1.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes 0% and for Andy Lowe becomes +0.7%.
Given Andy Lowe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.1% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is 0% and for Andy Lowe is +0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 73%, Andy Lowe: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 69%, Andy Lowe: 80%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Andy Lowe:
6,287, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin:
9,489, level confidence: 69%.