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Matt Crawcour v Michael McLaughlin (Tue 26 Mar 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 15-13,1-15,0-15,0-15.

Starting level for Matt Crawcour: 6,210, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,491, level confidence: 69%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Matt Crawcour.

Michael McLaughlin won 75% of the games and 78% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 263% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 103% better than Matt Crawcour in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael McLaughlin actually played at a level of 10,948 and Matt Crawcour at a level of 5,383. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to +8.9% and Matt Crawcour changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes +2.9% and for Matt Crawcour becomes -4.2%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Given Matt Crawcour's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 4.9% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Veterans League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is +1.9% and for Matt Crawcour is -2.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 83%, Matt Crawcour: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 72%, Matt Crawcour: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Crawcour: 6,024, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,658, level confidence: 72%.