SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Adrian Waller v Emyr Evans (Tue 26 Mar 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-7,5-11,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 42,154, level confidence: 33%.
Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,511, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 72% better than Emyr Evans.

Adrian Waller won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 26% better than Emyr Evans in this match.

As Adrian Waller has played below his allowed range at 32,814, his level reduction is 6.6% before damping. On the assumption that Adrian Waller would normally have been playing at level 38,805 (based on typical behaviour), Emyr Evans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to -5% and Emyr Evans changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes -1.5% and for Emyr Evans becomes +1.3%.

Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 71% has been applied to his level change.

Given Emyr Evans's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Adrian Waller is -0.7% and for Emyr Evans is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 57%, Emyr Evans: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 49%, Emyr Evans: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 41,813, level confidence: 49%.
Final level for Emyr Evans: 24,641, level confidence: 80%.