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Baptiste Masotti v Campbell Grayson (Sun 24 Mar 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 12-10,11-13,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,649, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 34,087, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Campbell Grayson.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 23% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 39,678 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 32,344. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +5.1% and Campbell Grayson changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +1.6% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tennis Racquet Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 90%, Campbell Grayson: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 86%, Campbell Grayson: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 38,201, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 33,704, level confidence: 89%.