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Mohamed Elsherbini v Omar Abdel Meguid (Sun 24 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 9-11,12-10,9-11,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,906, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 28,146, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Omar Abdel Meguid.

Mohamed Elsherbini won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 12% better than Omar Abdel Meguid in this match.

As Mohamed Elsherbini has played below his allowed range at 32,998, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 35,210 (based on typical behaviour), Omar Abdel Meguid played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -4.1% and Omar Abdel Meguid changes to +4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -1.4% and for Omar Abdel Meguid becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Lethbridge Pro Am' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 89%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 83%, Omar Abdel Meguid: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,426, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Omar Abdel Meguid: 28,660, level confidence: 87%.