Campbell Grayson v Victor Crouin (Fri 22 Mar 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-9,12-14,10-12,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
32,950, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Victor Crouin:
34,976, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing
6% better than Campbell Grayson.
Campbell Grayson won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
12% better than Victor Crouin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
35,888 and Victor Crouin at a level of
32,113. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +8% and Victor Crouin changes to -8.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +2.1% and for Victor Crouin becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tennis Racquet Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 93%, Victor Crouin: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 85%, Victor Crouin: 82%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
33,683, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Victor Crouin:
34,325, level confidence: 82%.