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Julian Tomlinson v Peter Billson (Tue 19 Mar 2019)

Match won by Peter Billson. Result: 10-12,11-9,4-11,11-9,7-11.

Starting level for Julian Tomlinson: 14,570, level confidence: 35%.
Starting level for Peter Billson: 15,581, level confidence: 52%.
Peter Billson to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Julian Tomlinson.

Peter Billson won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Billson played 13% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Billson actually played at a level of 15,998 and Julian Tomlinson at a level of 14,191. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Billson changes to +1.7% and Julian Tomlinson changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Billson becomes +0.8% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes -1.2%.

Given Peter Billson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 28% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Peter Billson is +0.5% and for Julian Tomlinson is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Billson: 72%, Julian Tomlinson: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Billson: 70%, Julian Tomlinson: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Tomlinson: 14,449, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Peter Billson: 15,628, level confidence: 70%.