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Mohamed Elsherbini v Baptiste Masotti (Sat 16 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-6.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 34,222, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,536, level confidence: 70%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 43% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 44,029 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 30,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +24% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +5% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manitoba Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 87%, Baptiste Masotti: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 68%, Baptiste Masotti: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 35,816, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,764, level confidence: 65%.