Tarek Momen v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Thu 14 Mar 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-7,6-11,12-10,11-9.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
60,187, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elshorbagy:
63,428, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Tarek Momen.
Tarek Momen won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
19% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
67,521 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of
56,538. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +10.2% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -12%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +2.3% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 94%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 84%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 78%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
61,519, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy:
62,018, level confidence: 78%.