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Mohamed Elsherbini v Karim El Hammamy (Thu 14 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-1,14-12.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,969, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,255, level confidence: 47%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Karim El Hammamy.

Mohamed Elsherbini won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 27% better than Karim El Hammamy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elsherbini actually played at a level of 34,362 and Karim El Hammamy at a level of 27,110. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +3.3% and Karim El Hammamy changes to -3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +1.2% and for Karim El Hammamy becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manitoba Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 74%, Karim El Hammamy: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 71%, Karim El Hammamy: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 33,282, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Karim El Hammamy: 28,016, level confidence: 65%.