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Mohamed Elshorbagy v Declan James (Wed 13 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-2.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 61,807, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan James: 40,614, level confidence: 63%.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 52% better than Declan James.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 100% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 100% better than Declan James in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 70,855 and Declan James at a level of 35,428. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 8.7% and 8.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +7.1% and Declan James changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +1.8% and for Declan James becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 88%, Declan James: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Declan James: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 62,713, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Declan James: 39,991, level confidence: 69%.