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Mohamed Elsherbini v Connor Turk (Wed 13 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,969, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Connor Turk: 5,525, level confidence: 42%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing 497% better than Connor Turk.

Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played 154% better than Connor Turk in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Elsherbini was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,209 and 32,969 without affecting his level.

In this case, Mohamed Elsherbini played at level 15,632 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Mohamed Elsherbini would normally have been playing at level 17,424 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Turk played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini changes to 0% and Connor Turk changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes 0% and for Connor Turk becomes +2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Manitoba Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 84%, Connor Turk: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 55%, Connor Turk: 43%.

Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,969, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Connor Turk: 5,644, level confidence: 43%.