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Joel Makin v Max Lee (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 6-11,11-6,11-9.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 51,278, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Max Lee: 42,041, level confidence: 60%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Max Lee.

Joel Makin won 67% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 14% better than Max Lee in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 48,915, his level reduction is 2.2% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 50,630 (based on typical behaviour), Max Lee played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -1.4% and Max Lee changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -0.5% and for Max Lee becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 81%, Max Lee: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 78%, Max Lee: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 50,979, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Max Lee: 42,489, level confidence: 75%.