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Ryan Cuskelly v James Willstrop (Tue 12 Mar 2019)

Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 6-11,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 44,044, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,632, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Ryan Cuskelly.

Ryan Cuskelly won 67% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 30% better than James Willstrop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of 52,769 and James Willstrop at a level of 40,591. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +12% and James Willstrop changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +2.8% and for James Willstrop becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 91%, James Willstrop: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 76%, James Willstrop: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 45,187, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 47,335, level confidence: 72%.