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Raphael Kandra v Adrain Waller (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-2,11-2.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 40,931, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 44,569, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Raphael Kandra.

Raphael Kandra won all of the games and 85% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 450% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 450% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raphael Kandra actually played at a level of 100,167 and Adrain Waller at a level of 18,212. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 145% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 90% and 90% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to +88% and Adrain Waller changes to -90%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes +13.5% and for Adrain Waller becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canary Wharf Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Raphael Kandra is limited to +5.2% and Adrain Waller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 86%, Adrain Waller: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 35%, Adrain Waller: 35%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 43,124, level confidence: 35%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 42,497, level confidence: 35%.