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Salma Hany v Nele Gilis (Mon 11 Mar 2019)

Match won by Salma Hany. Result: 13-11,7-11,13-11,11-1.

Starting level for Salma Hany: 8,845, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Nele Gilis: 7,358, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Salma Hany to win as she is currently playing 20% better than Nele Gilis.

Salma Hany won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Salma Hany played 26% better than Nele Gilis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Salma Hany actually played at a level of 9,072 and Nele Gilis at a level of 7,174. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Salma Hany changes to +2.3% and Nele Gilis changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Salma Hany becomes +1.2% and for Nele Gilis becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Black Ball Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Salma Hany: 80%, Nele Gilis: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Salma Hany: 78%, Nele Gilis: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Salma Hany: 8,829, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nele Gilis: 7,345, level confidence: 85%.