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Greg Lobban v Chris Simpson (Wed 13 Mar 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-7,11-8,5-11,3-11,12-10.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 36,831, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 35,584, level confidence: 58%.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Chris Simpson.

Greg Lobban won 60% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 5% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 37,068 and Chris Simpson at a level of 35,357. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +0.6% and Chris Simpson changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +0.2% and for Chris Simpson becomes 0%.

Given Greg Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 63% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Greg Lobban is 0% and for Chris Simpson is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 80%, Chris Simpson: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 79%, Chris Simpson: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 36,813, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,490, level confidence: 75%.