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Catalina Pelaez v Julia Le Coq (Wed 06 Mar 2019)

Match won by Catalina Pelaez. Result: 11-7,11-5,9-11,3-11,11-8.

Starting level for Catalina Pelaez: 4,420, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Julia Le Coq: 2,756, level confidence: 53%.
Catalina Pelaez to win as she is currently playing 60% better than Julia Le Coq.

Catalina Pelaez won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Catalina Pelaez played 9% better than Julia Le Coq in this match.

As Catalina Pelaez has played below her allowed range at 3,420, her level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Catalina Pelaez would normally have been playing at level 4,143 (based on typical behaviour), Julia Le Coq played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.6% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Catalina Pelaez changes to -6.3% and Julia Le Coq changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Catalina Pelaez becomes -2.8% and for Julia Le Coq becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Bermuda Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Catalina Pelaez: 92%, Julia Le Coq: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Catalina Pelaez: 76%, Julia Le Coq: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Catalina Pelaez: 4,359, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Julia Le Coq: 2,909, level confidence: 60%.