Ryan Cuskelly v Cesar Salazar (Mon 04 Mar 2019)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-5,11-2,9-11,4-11,11-3.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
44,506, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Cesar Salazar:
39,131, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Cesar Salazar.
Ryan Cuskelly won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played
18% better than Cesar Salazar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of
45,417 and Cesar Salazar at a level of
38,346. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +1.8% and Cesar Salazar changes to -1.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +0.7% and for Cesar Salazar becomes -0.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 91%, Cesar Salazar: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 89%, Cesar Salazar: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
44,667, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Cesar Salazar:
39,019, level confidence: 88%.