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Diego Elias v Karim Ali Fathi (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-9,10-12,11-8,11-2.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 52,702, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,254, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Karim Ali Fathi.

Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 30% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

As Diego Elias has played below his allowed range at 43,782, his level reduction is 4.8% before damping. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 49,175 (based on typical behaviour), Karim Ali Fathi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 6.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to -3.7% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes -1.2% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes +1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 78%, Karim Ali Fathi: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 70%, Karim Ali Fathi: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 51,932, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 32,853, level confidence: 77%.