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Mohamed Abouelghar v Eain Yow Ng (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Abouelghar. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-3.

Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 49,909, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 36,514, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Mohamed Abouelghar won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Abouelghar played 94% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Abouelghar actually played at a level of 59,477 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 30,640. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar changes to +15% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes +3.1% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Abouelghar: 92%, Eain Yow Ng: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Abouelghar: 77%, Eain Yow Ng: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 51,181, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 35,527, level confidence: 74%.