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Tom Richards v Arturo Salazar (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-3.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,048, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 38,853, level confidence: 65%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Tom Richards.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 200% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 66,595 and Arturo Salazar at a level of 22,198. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 75% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +69% and Arturo Salazar changes to -74%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +11.4% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tom Richards is limited to +5.4% and Arturo Salazar is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 83%, Arturo Salazar: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 48%, Arturo Salazar: 46%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 40,092, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 37,010, level confidence: 46%.