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Paul Coll v Adrian Waller (Mon 04 Mar 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-6,4-11,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 58,018, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrian Waller: 43,550, level confidence: 56%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Adrian Waller.

Paul Coll won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 29% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

In this case, Paul Coll played at level 56,328 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Adrian Waller is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to 0% and Adrian Waller changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes 0% and for Adrian Waller becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 95%, Adrian Waller: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 93%, Adrian Waller: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 57,967, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Adrian Waller: 43,841, level confidence: 73%.