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Cesar Salazar v Ben Coleman (Sun 03 Mar 2019)

Match won by Cesar Salazar. Result: 6-11,11-8,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Cesar Salazar: 39,082, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ben Coleman: 30,683, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Cesar Salazar to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Ben Coleman.

Cesar Salazar won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cesar Salazar played 24% better than Ben Coleman in this match.

In this case, Cesar Salazar played at level 38,120 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cesar Salazar would normally have been playing at level 38,334 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Coleman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar changes to 0% and Ben Coleman changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cesar Salazar becomes 0% and for Ben Coleman becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cesar Salazar: 81%, Ben Coleman: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cesar Salazar: 80%, Ben Coleman: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Cesar Salazar: 38,936, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Ben Coleman: 30,847, level confidence: 87%.