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Nafizwan Adnan v Todd Harrity (Sun 03 Mar 2019)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 14-12,11-7,11-2.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 33,454, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 35,803, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Todd Harrity to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Nafizwan Adnan.

Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 71% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nafizwan Adnan actually played at a level of 45,313 and Todd Harrity at a level of 26,433. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to +34% and Todd Harrity changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes +6.6% and for Todd Harrity becomes -5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nafizwan Adnan is limited to +5.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 81%, Todd Harrity: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 59%, Todd Harrity: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 35,306, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 34,112, level confidence: 65%.