Eain Yow Ng v Tayyab Aslam (Sun 03 Mar 2019)
Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 10-12,11-3,14-16,11-4,11-6.
Starting level for
Eain Yow Ng:
36,980, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Tayyab Aslam:
28,189, level confidence: 63%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Tayyab Aslam.
Eain Yow Ng won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played
17% better than Tayyab Aslam in this match.
As Eain Yow Ng has played below his allowed range at 34,129, his level reduction is 3.3% before damping. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 36,099 (based on typical behaviour), Tayyab Aslam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 3.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to -2.7% and Tayyab Aslam changes to +3.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes -1% and for Tayyab Aslam becomes +1.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 82%, Tayyab Aslam: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 77%, Tayyab Aslam: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng:
36,514, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Tayyab Aslam:
28,636, level confidence: 75%.