Campbell Grayson v Rex Hedrick (Sun 03 Mar 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 9-11,12-10,11-6,11-9.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
31,972, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Rex Hedrick:
35,143, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Campbell Grayson.
Campbell Grayson won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
23% better than Rex Hedrick in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
37,201 and Rex Hedrick at a level of
30,204. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +16% and Rex Hedrick changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +3.5% and for Rex Hedrick becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 87%, Rex Hedrick: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 74%, Rex Hedrick: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
33,018, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Rex Hedrick:
34,064, level confidence: 75%.