Adrian Waller v Nathan Lake (Sun 03 Mar 2019)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-4.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
41,080, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nathan Lake:
31,139, level confidence: 57%.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Nathan Lake.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
200% better than Nathan Lake in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
61,948 and Nathan Lake at a level of
20,649. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +35% and Nathan Lake changes to -43%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +6.5% and for Nathan Lake becomes -8.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Canada Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adrian Waller is limited to +5.2% and Nathan Lake is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 84%, Nathan Lake: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 56%, Nathan Lake: 50%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
43,224, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Nathan Lake:
29,653, level confidence: 50%.