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Chris Simpson v James Willstrop (Wed 06 Mar 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 34,700, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for James Willstrop: 48,989, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Chris Simpson.

Chris Simpson won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 32% better than James Willstrop in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Simpson actually played at a level of 47,288 and James Willstrop at a level of 35,948. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to +30% and James Willstrop changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes +5.9% and for James Willstrop becomes -4.5%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 61% has been applied to his level change.

Given James Willstrop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 78% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is +2.7% and for James Willstrop is -1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 81%, James Willstrop: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 59%, James Willstrop: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,594, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for James Willstrop: 48,028, level confidence: 66%.