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Michael McLaughlin v Richard Carr (Thu 07 Mar 2019)

Match won by Michael McLaughlin. Result: 17-15,15-12,15-10.

Starting level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,638, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Richard Carr: 3,479, level confidence: 66%.
Michael McLaughlin to win as he is currently playing 177% better than Richard Carr.

Michael McLaughlin won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael McLaughlin played 36% better than Richard Carr in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Michael McLaughlin was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,538 and 9,638 without affecting his level.

As Michael McLaughlin has played below his allowed range at 5,124, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Michael McLaughlin would normally have been playing at level 7,535 (based on typical behaviour), Richard Carr played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin changes to -4.8% and Richard Carr changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin becomes -2% and for Richard Carr becomes +5.6%.

Given Michael McLaughlin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Veterans League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Michael McLaughlin is -1.3% and for Richard Carr is +4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael McLaughlin: 81%, Richard Carr: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael McLaughlin: 57%, Richard Carr: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael McLaughlin: 9,504, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Richard Carr: 3,619, level confidence: 57%.