Julian Tomlinson v Patrick Rooney (Tue 05 Mar 2019)
Match won by Patrick Rooney. Result: 12-10,10-12,3-11,12-10,7-11.
Starting level for
Julian Tomlinson:
15,226, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Patrick Rooney:
27,454, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Patrick Rooney to win as he is currently playing
80% better than Julian Tomlinson.
Patrick Rooney won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick Rooney played
13% better than Julian Tomlinson in this match.
As Patrick Rooney has played below his allowed range at 19,513, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Patrick Rooney would normally have been playing at level 24,928 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Tomlinson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 15% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney changes to -9.7% and Julian Tomlinson changes to +14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick Rooney becomes -2.6% and for Julian Tomlinson becomes +3.8%.
Given Patrick Rooney's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 51% has been applied to his level change.
Given Julian Tomlinson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 30% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2018/19' so the adjustment for Patrick Rooney is -1.2% and for Julian Tomlinson is +2.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick Rooney: 88%, Julian Tomlinson: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick Rooney: 70%, Julian Tomlinson: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Julian Tomlinson:
15,536, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney:
27,075, level confidence: 70%.