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Ali Farag v Simon Rösner (Fri 01 Mar 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 11-2,11-9,11-4.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 74,708, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 57,601, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Simon Rösner.

Ali Farag won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 120% better than Simon Rösner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ali Farag actually played at a level of 97,299 and Simon Rösner at a level of 44,227. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to +23% and Simon Rösner changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes +4.2% and for Simon Rösner becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 92%, Simon Rösner: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 70%, Simon Rösner: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 77,259, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 55,358, level confidence: 66%.