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Tarek Momen v Marwan Elshorbagy (Thu 28 Feb 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 56,467, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 52,128, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 120% better than Marwan Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 80,472 and Marwan Elshorbagy at a level of 36,578. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +35% and Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +6.2% and for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tarek Momen is limited to +4.8% and Marwan Elshorbagy is limited to -4.9% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 96%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 67%, Marwan Elshorbagy: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 59,080, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 49,648, level confidence: 62%.